Is 2009 going to be an El Nino year? WMO, the apex UN body on climate, warned that there was a more than 50% chance of El Nino this year -- double the normal probability in any other year. This is likely to spell trouble for the world economy already teetering on the back of a grave recession and agri commodities prices may be in for a long haul irrespective of whether the economic recovery in V shaped, W shaped or L shaped. In case of India, risk of a failed monsoon has risen manifold with the World Meteorological Organization warning of a "substantially elevated risk" of this being an El Nino year. Agri commodity prices in the country are already on the way up with the food prices inflation hovering around 9% mark- even as the Wholesale Price Index hovers well below 0%. Food prices are likely to escalate around the world if the “little boy” as El Nino stands for in Spanish turns out to be a big mess.
A weather anomaly that saps the monsoon of its strength
El Nino is a periodic weather anomaly that saps the monsoon of its strength on most of the occasions it occurs. It is marked by warming of Pacific waters that slow down the trade winds blowing from South America towards South East Asia. Before one understands the impact of El Nino on the countries facing this phenomenon, one must empathize what is El Nino? The El Nino or Pacific warm episode is often referred to abnormal periodic warming of surface ocean waters in eastern tropical Pacific. The condition is a part of ENSO or El Nino Southern Oscillation. During southern oscillation the air pressure differs between eastern and western tropical pacific. When surface pressure increases in eastern pacific it declines in the western pacific and vice versa causing the oscillations. Warm weather conditions are prevalent in the Pacific Ocean during the El Nino year. The periodicity of El Nino differs from 3 years to 8 years and last from 12 to 18 months.
Drought in three states: Is India already hit
El Nino impacts the monsoons, and brings with it shift in rainfall patterns. During a typical El Nino, the Asian monsoon usually weakens and is pushed towards equator, often bringing summer drought to northwest and central regions of India. India has been of late witnessing the same problem. The monsoon in the northern agri growing belt of India has been severely impacted and drought has already been declared in states of UP, Assam and some regions in Bihar.
The latest forecasts released by Indian meteorological department (IMD) showed that La Nina weather conditions ended in December 2008 and since than the El Nino conditions have prevailed. In between the week ending 5th Aug 2009, the country as a whole received a total rainfall of 56.3 mm as against 78.3 mm during the week ending 22nd July 2009. In Northwest India thesituation improved and the long period average (LPA) came down to below normal rainfall of 12% as against below normal rainfall of 22% registered on 22nd July. The long period average for the monsoon in India was at 82%. For the total period of South west monsoon the expected forecast in the second revised estimates of IMD was 93%.
World Wheat supplies yet again under hammer
Australia and Peru are few of the other countries, which will face the impact from ENSO conditions. Australia is one of the largest exporters of Wheat in the world. The country hasn’t fully recovered from the drought, which affected the wheat production drastically and with 2009 on a verge of being declared an El Nino year the situation is likely to remain same. In 2009-10, world wheat production is forecast to decline by 40 million tonnes while world wheat consumption is forecast to remain largely unchanged. The meteorological phenomenon El Nino could reappear and will affect Peru in the coming months, Peru's National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology director (Senamhi) said recently. Senamhi's director Elizabeth Silvestre said “the continuous warming in the Pacific Ocean implies a high risk for a negative impact to come and the agriculture harvests is likely to suffer the worst of up-coming droughts or floods.”
Palm oil to feel the heat too
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology in its latest report on 5th Aug 2009 mentioned that the weather conditions are warm in the tropical Pacific Ocean and if the situation persists than 2009 will be termed as an El Nino year. The Southern Oscillation index (SOI) is near to zero. Persistent negative SOI value is an indicator of El Nino events. The model forecasts for 2009-10 suggest that El Nino will continue to strengthen in coming months. US climate prediction center expects El Nino to be moderate to strong one. During August-October 2009 drier than average conditions will be prevalent over Indonesia and enhanced precipitation over the central and west-central Pacific Ocean as per National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The result would be negative affect on the major palm oil producing countries like Indonesia and Malaysia.
Blessing in disguise: is crude likely to be cool
The El Nino conditions are sometimes beneficial, as they tend to slow down the hurricanes emerging from the Atlantic. The US hurricane season starts in August and ends till October. The season brings along with it a threat to the Crude Oil refineries operating in the Gulf of Mexico. This time round, NOAA expects near to below normal Atlantic hurricane season as the effects of El Nino continue to develop. The probability of occurrence of below normal season has increased in August than in May when NOAA released its previous outlook. The May outlook called for 9-14 named storms, of which 4- 7 could become hurricanes. In August the number has come down to 7-11 named storms while the total number of Hurricanes will be 3-6. This will be easing the prices of Crude, which tend to swell on halts in refining.
Outlook:
The situation is not well for the kharif season in India, lack of adequate monsoon during this period is adversely impacting the sowing progress in most of the states. The area covered under rice is so far estimated at 191.30 lakh hectares in July-August as against 256.70 lakh hectares during the same period previous year. The decline in the total area will affect the production of rice this year. The lower rainfall has impacted the sowing in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal and Jharkhand. Although the situation is not solely due to the El Nino conditions yet it is acting as a major factor. In countries like Australia, Indonesia and Malaysia warmer conditions will be bearing on the Wheat and Palm oil production. However the benefits will arise from the fall in number of hurricanes hitting the Gulf of Mexico refineries.
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